Monday, April 4, 2016

WHITE DOVE OR BLACK SWAN: NUCLEAR DETERRENCE, OR GLOBAL DEVASTATION?

     “If some extraterrestrial species were compiling a history of Homo sapiens, they might well break their calendar into two eras: BNW (before nuclear weapons) and NWE (the nuclear weapons era). The latter era, of course, opened on August 6, 1945 (atomic bombing of Hiroshima), the first day of the countdown to what may be the inglorious end of this strange species, which attained the intelligence to discover the effective means to destroy itself, but – so the evidence suggests – not the moral and intellectual capacity to control the worst instincts,” world-renowned American linguist and philosopher, social critic and political activist, Noam Chomsky posted on the eve of Hiroshima Day 2014.

     “As we now enter its 70th year, we should be contemplating with wonder that we have survived. We can only guess how many more years remain…”

    Chomsky then quoted General Lee Butler, the last commander in chief of the US Strategic Air Command (in charge of nuclear weapons and strategy) before its disestablishment on June 1992.

     “Twenty years ago, he (Lee Butler) wrote that we had so far survived the NWE “by some combination of skill, luck, and divine intervention, and I suspect the latter in greatest proportions.”

     “Reflecting on his long career in developing nuclear weapons strategies and organizing the forces to implement them efficiently, he described himself ruefully as having been “among the most avid of these keepers of the faith in nuclear weapons. But, he continued, he had come to realize that it was now his “burden to declare with all of the conviction I can muster that in my judgment they served us extremely ill.”

     “And he asked, “By what authority do succeeding generations of leaders in the nuclear-weapons states usurp the power to dictate the odds of continued life on our planet? Most urgently, why does such breathtaking audacity persist at a moment when we should stand trembling in the face of our folly and united in our commitment to abolish its most deadly manifestations?””




     Concluding his timely piece with the same penetrative insight as the good general’s, Chomsky gladly quoted the military authority again:

     “As General Butler observed, it is a near miracle that we have escaped destruction so far, and the longer we tempt fate, the less likely it is that we can hope for divine intervention to perpetuate the miracle.”

     On 5 December 1996, an unprecedented statement calling for the elimination of nuclear weapons was released by 61 former Generals and Admirals from 17 countries, including 18 Russians and 17 from the US. They described nuclear weapons as constituting “a peril to global peace and security and to the safety and survival of the people we are dedicated to protect.”

     Introducing on 2 February 1998 the landmark statement by 120 civilian leaders calling for abolition of nuclear weapons, General Lee Butler took the opportunity to explain why he had “made the long and arduous journey from staunch advocate of nuclear deterrence to public proponent of nuclear abolition.” And he warned that nuclear deterrence could lead to Mutual Assured Destruction (the two sides of the coin of nuclear force). Butler noted that nuclear deterrence was “a Western design, a self-delusion” that a nuclear war could be deterred.

     Former national leaders including Jimmy Carter (US), Lord Callaghan (UK), Helmut Schmidt (Germany), and Pierre Trudeau (Canada) concluded their historic statement:

     “The world is not condemned to live forever with threats of nuclear conflict, or the anxious, fragile peace imposed by nuclear deterrence. Such threats are intolerable and such a peace unworthy. The sheer destructiveness of nuclear weapons invokes a moral imperative for their elimination. That is our mandate. Let us begin.”

     (Ironically, that’s a restatement of the very first resolution of the United Nations, adopted way back in 1946. Speaking at the UN in September 2015, Pope Francis called for banning all nuclear weapons, describing the nuclear threat of destruction as “an affront to the entire framework” of the United Nations.



          “…Nuclear war is the black swan (which is said to be impossible, but does exist) we can never see, except in that brief moment when it is killing us (in massive numbers). We delay eliminating the risk at our own peril,” Seth Baum of Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI) wrote in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 21, 2014.

          “Now is the time to address the threat, because we are still alive…”

          According to Alan Robock, American climatologist at Rutgers University in New Jersey, and co-author of a 2014 study on the impact on Earth’s climate
following detonation of 50 “Hiroshima-size” (13-15 kiloton) nuclear weapons in a war between India and Pakistan, the ensuing fires would loft 5 million tons of soot to heat up the stratosphere around while surface temperatures plunge, inducing a noxious nuclear winter. With atmospheric ozone consequently depleted and UV radiation enhanced, the destruction of crops would lead to global famine and death of about 2 billion people (slightly over a quarter of the world’s population).

          On the climatic and overall impact of a global nuclear conflict, Brian Gallagher posted on nauti.us 27 June 2015:

           “It’s almost impossible to fathom the awesome amount of charred remains that would be floating around the planet after nuclear annihilation.

          “Robock estimates that 150 million tons of smoke would envelope Earth, plummeting temperatures to those of the last ice age 18,000 years ago. It would be around 30 years for smoke-filled air to clear. It would take decades for the planet to warm up to pre-war levels.

           “But global warming would be over,” says Robock. “Why? Because CO2 (carbon dioxide) production would stop with the destruction of civilization…””

           To further quote William Perry, former defense secretary and author of “My Journey at the Nuclear Brink” (1995):

         “My special experience has kept me acutely aware of nuclear dangers and contemplating the almost unthinkable consequences of a nuclear war. A lifetime in which I had firsthand experiences and special access to top-secret knowledge of strategic nuclear options has given me a unique, and chilling, vantage point from which to conclude that nuclear weapons no longer provide for our security – they now endanger it…”                                                

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