In an insightful article published in Foreign Affairs March/April 2006, two
American political science professors, Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press have
written matter-of-factly:
“Today, for the first time in almost 50
years, the United States stands on the verge of attaining nuclear primacy. It
will probably soon be possible for the United States to destroy the long-range
nuclear arsenals of Russia or China (or both) with a first strike.
“This dramatic shift in the balance of
power stems from a series of improvements in the United States’ nuclear systems
(in early 1990s shortly after the end of the Cold War), the precipitous decline
of Russia’s arsenal (during the Yeltsin era of 1991-1999 with its total neglect
of the Russian nuclear forces amidst rampant corruption, economic collapse, and
political crisis), and the glacial pace of modernization of China’s nuclear
forces.
“Unless Washington’s policies (for
maintaining total military superiority and world dominance) change or Moscow
and Beijing take steps to increase the size and readiness of their forces,
Russia and China – and the rest of the world – will live in the shadows of U.S.
nuclear primacy for many years to come…”
It may be recalled that the Soviet Union
achieved nuclear parity with the US in 1975, slightly over a decade after the
October 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Although the US had overwhelming nuclear
superiority in 1962, the hugely outnumbered Soviet missiles had enough nuclear
explosives to destroy the US in a free-for-all.
While the US had regained its
first-strike capability/nuclear primacy(the Holy Grail) by the time that the piece by Lieber and
Press had gone to press early 2006, Moscow had woke up to the great American
nuclear threat following Yeltsin’s resignation in favour of his hand-picked
successor Vladimir Putin at the end of 1999. Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev
(1997-2001) had turned his mind to the Strategic Rocket Forces and provided
adequate funding for Russia’s nuclear arms from the late 1990s.
With the recent deployment of the new Yars
RS-24 ICBMs each with three nuclear warheads and the commissioning of two new
Borei-class nuclear submarines (SSBNs) each carrying 16 Bulava missiles, each
of which armed with six warheads, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has reclaimed its
nuclear parity with the US in early autumn of 2014.
The Chinese “tortoise”
has since also confirmed its confident arrival at the level of
second-strike/deterrent capability against the US with the successful launching
in late 2013 of the JL-2 SLBM with at least a dozen missiles with three
warheads each, for the Type 094 Class submarines (SSBNs) developed in 2010.
“Our JL-2 SLBMs
have become the fourth type of Chinese nuclear missiles that threaten the
continental US, after our DF-31A, DF-5A and DF-5B ICBMs,” Global Times proudly reported in an article on the Chinese underwater
nuclear deterrent (New Straits Times November
4, 2013).
According to
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), China has had a
nuclear deterrence and second-strike capability since 1981 when the silo-based
DF-5 ICBM became operational. The road-mobile DF-31A ICBM entered service in
2008. Even before the entry of the JL-2, China already had about 40 ICBMs to
target the continental US.
“A conflict
between China and United States will definitely be a disaster for the two
countries and the world,” President Xi Jinping said in Beijing on 9 July 2014,
as reported by Bloomberg News.
Nevertheless,
the US Department of Defense remains fully committed to its “Joint Vision 2020”
for full-spectrum dominance, its blueprint for global and total military
superiority (publicly released 30 May 2000).
,
“After President Barack Obama took office
with a strong commitment of the United States to reducing its numbers and role
of nuclear weapons, and to taking concrete steps toward a world without nuclear
weapons (for which he was awarded the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize), the Obama
administration may eventually be
remembered for its commitment to modernizing the US nuclear arsenal.
“Partly building on programs from the Bush
administration (2001-2009), the Obama administration has drawn up plans for modernizing all
aspects of the entire nuclear enterprise, including development of new nuclear
delivery systems, and life extension and modernization of all its enduring nuclear
warhead types and nuclear weapons production facilities,” Hans Kristensen and
Robert Norris of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) posted online 20
June 2014, and published in Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists July/August 2014.
“Moreover,
rather than constraining the role of nuclear weapons, the Obama
administration’s 2013 nuclear weapons employment strategy reaffirmed the
existing posture of a nuclear triad of forces (ICBMs, SSBNs and strategic
bombers) on high alert…”
On Russia’s nuclear
modernization, the two distinguished nuclear statisticians/historians have
briefly reported:
“Within the next
decade, all Soviet-era nuclear weapons systems will be phased out and replaced
with new ones – albeit at a lower level. On land, development of three missiles
is under way, the SS-27 ICBM, the R8-24 (possibly another SS-27 modification),
and the “heavy” ICBM known as the Samat. At sea, construction of eight Borei
class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is scheduled and equipped with the
SS-N-32 (Bulava) SLBM…” (With 10 warheads like its much-dreaded predecessor the
SS-18 (Satan) ICBM, the Samat is expected to enter service shortly after 2020.)
In nuclear
weapons we trust, is the American way of maintaining and securing its supreme
national defense and security interests. This abiding faith in nuclear might is
also espoused by the other eight nuclear-armed
States, particularly and passionately so Russia.
“We’re now at the precipice, maybe I
should say the brink, of a new nuclear arms race,” William Perry, 19th
US Secretary of Defense (1994-1997), said in Washington, DC, on 3 December
2015.
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